【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 16，2025-250716（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 16,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Iron Ore:A succession of policy-driven trading themes has significantly boosted demand expectations.After more than a month of sidew

2、ays movement,iron ore futures have surged sharply,breaking through pre-trade war highs and setting new short-term records.In terms of fundamental supply-demand dynamics,aside from a decline in mainstream ore shipments at the start of the second half of the year,there has been little marginal change.

3、However,a series of policy developments have greatly lifted market expectations for end-user steel demand.The recent anti-involution policy discourse is key:its immediate impact lies in improving profit expectations within manufacturing industries,while a deeper implication is the potential for quas

4、i-supply-side reform style interventions.Additionally,anticipation around last weeks“Urban Work Conference”was quickly priced in,reflecting strong market optimism for real estate and infrastructure-related demand.Overall,in the first half of the year,demand for ferrous products was mainly driven by

5、exports.But a series of recent macro policy signals have now shifted focus toward domestic manufacturing,real estate,and infrastructure,significantly boosting demand expectations for steel.Combined with already relatively healthy steel mill profit margins,iron ore prices may continue to trade in a s

6、trong,range-bound manner in the near term.July July 1 16 6,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Chart 1：Market Snapshot Source：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Open Interest Chart 2:Open Interest of IF Chart 3:Open Interest of IH Sou