【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 11, 2025-250711（11页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 11,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Silicon Manganese&Ferrosilicon:Macro sentiment combined with cost support has driven a steady upward trend in both silicon-based all

2、oys.Recently,the ferroalloy market has experienced a gradual climb,supported by an improved macro environment and a synchronized rally in the ferrous sector,along with anticipated cost support.Since mid-June,ferrosilicon futures have risen by 7.8%,while silicomanganese has gained 6.1%.On the sentime

3、nt front,the broad-based gains in the ferrous sectorled by a rebound in coking coalhave lifted silicon-related products,further boosted by the ripple effects of recent“anti-involution”policy signals.On the cost side,ferrosilicon is supported by expectations of higher electricity tariffs in Ningxia d

4、uring the non-trading months(AugustSeptember),while silicomanganese benefits from firm manganese ore offers from South Africa,tight availability of oxide ore,and strong price-holding sentiment in the manganese ore market.These factors create a robust cost floor for the forward market.Currently,the m

5、arket is characterized by“emotion-driven rallies with underlying demand support.”Rising prices in steel procurement contracts confirm ongoing demand.However,with prices approaching producer hedging zones,caution is warranted to avoid excessive chasing.Attention should focus on the sustainability of

6、high steel output and elevated mill profits,alongside close monitoring of raw material shipments and hot July July 1 11 1,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 metal production.Watch for easing sentiment in coke and coal markets and con