【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 10, 2025-250710（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 10,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Propylene:Propylene is expected to be listed on July 22.As an upstream olefin monomer,it connects both upstream and downstream secto

2、rs of the industry chainit links to LPG on the upstream side and polypropylene on the downstream,playing an important role in industrial hedging.The price fluctuations of propylene can be divided into several phases.From 2015 to 2019,the primary production methods for propylene were refinery gas sep

3、aration and ethylene cracking,with PDH(propane dehydrogenation)accounting for a relatively small share.During this period,propylene prices were highly correlated with crude oil.Since 2019,with the large-scale commissioning of PDH capacity,the correlation between propylene and crude oil prices has de

4、clined.Currently,PDH has become the main external supply source in the propylene trade market.Meanwhile,the downstream polypropylene powder segment has experienced rapid overcapacity in recent years,leading to lower average operating rates and more responsive adjustments.As a result,recent propylene

5、 price volatility has gradually narrowed.At present,propylene prices primarily oscillate within a wide range,fluctuating between upstream cost pressure and downstream demand.Government Bond Futures:The market continues to fluctuate within a narrow range,with no clear drivers for an upward or downwar

6、d breakout.Recently,government bond futures have maintained a choppy trend,with volatility showing signs of contraction.Positioning data by institution July July 1010,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 type from the end of last week