【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 4, 2025-250704（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 4,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Silver:Silver prices have risen recently.Following a phase of policy uncertainty and heightened geopolitical risk,the easing of these

2、 concerns has led to a recovery in market risk appetite,triggering a catch-up rally in silver.The gold-silver ratio,which had been elevated,has now declined noticeably.Although the earlier ADP employment data came in negative and caused some market anxiety,last nights June nonfarm payrolls once agai

3、n far exceeded expectations,recording 147,000 new jobs.The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%,and Mays data was revised upwardindicating continued resilience in the U.S.economy.With inflation expectations rising,the gold-silver ratio has continued to decline.We believe silver is likely to remain relativ

4、ely strong in the short term.The key level to watch is whether it can break through$37/oz.Iron Ore:Iron ore remains fundamentally strong,though price volatility has increased.Recently,prices have broken upward after a prolonged period of sideways movement.On the fundamentals side,demand remains elev

5、ated,supported by strong spot-market steel margins and robust export orders.Supply-wise,Cape-size freight rates have dropped significantly,largely due to a sharp decline in Pacific basin shipping demandsuggesting that iron ore shipments from Western Australia may be declining on a week-over-week bas

6、is.Meanwhile,domestic port inventories in China have continued to draw down this week.J July uly 4 4,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 From a macro perspective,domestically,market sentiment has improved,driven by cross-asset theme t