【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 27, 2025-250627（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 27,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Industrial Silicon:Production Cut News Drives Market;Short-Term Upside in Focus Market rumors suggest upstream factories have reduce

2、d output,coupled with expectations of downstream polysilicon production recovery,lifting the futures market from its recent lows.However,following this rebound,factories in Xinjiang have begun hedging,and if prices continue to rise,hedging from southwestern producers may also emerge,which would cap

3、further gains.From a supply-demand perspective,although the short-term restart of polysilicon production has brought about expectations of improved demand,industrial silicon remains under high inventory pressure.The pace of warehouse receipt reduction has slowed,weakening the momentum for further pr

4、ice increases.That said,in the short term,due to the continued rise in metallurgical coal prices,industrial silicon may show relative resilience,with significantly increased price volatility.Going forward,attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts for industrial silicon futur

5、es.If registrations begin to surge,it could present an opportunity to build short positions at higher levels.Soda Ash:Short-Term Rebound but Limited Upside,Market Still Range-Bound The persistent weakness in soda ash during the first half of the year was primarily driven by three factors:collapsing

6、costs due to falling June June 2 27 7,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 thermal coal prices,consistently high supply levels,and persistently weak demand from the glass sector.Recently,however,the narrative of cost collapse has begun