【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June24，2025-250624（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 24,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Crude Oil:Sharp Decline Driven by Geopolitical De-escalation,Consider Timing Reverse Spread Positions Last night,both domestic and i

2、nternational crude oil markets experienced sharp declines.Internationally,both major crude benchmarks fell below$70 per barrel,with cumulative losses exceeding 10%from recent highs.The drop was triggered by a tweet from U.S.President Trump announcing a formal ceasefire between Iran and Israel,which

3、quickly dampened market risk aversion and caused oil prices to give back their geopolitical premium.In the short term,with a potential production increase from OPEC+in early July,we believe the current upward trend in crude oil prices may have come to an end.However,low inventory levels,seasonal dem

4、and strength,and declining shale oil output may provide some short-term support and slow the pace of the decline.As such,the market may shift from an uptrend into a wide-range consolidation before moving into a downward trend.Strategy-wise,given the medium-to long-term downward pressure,we recommend

5、 closing long positions and looking for opportunities to establish reverse spread positions.Naphtha,LPG,and Downstream Petrochemicals:Geopolitical Premium Fades with Crude Decline June June 2 24 4,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 W

6、ith crude oil prices falling sharply,the geopolitical risk premium has largely dissipated.This has led to a broad unwinding of premiums for products linked to Iranian and Middle Eastern exports,including naphtha and LPG.Regional supply tensions for naphtha and LPG are expected to ease significantly.