【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 18, 2025-250618（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 18,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Naphtha and LPG:Near-term geopolitical tensions have driven crude oil sharply higher,compressing downstream margins and pressuring t

2、he naphtha cracking economics lower.The profitability of ethylene production in Asia has further deteriorated,and demand expectations for later months are weakening.From a supply-demand perspective,exports from the Middle East and Russia have so far remained stable,but extreme geopolitical risks war

3、rant close monitoring.EastWest arbitrage cargoes are set to increase significantly in June and July,and Asia could face added pressure from incoming arbitrage volumes.Given the deep losses in downstream sectors,structural imbalances in the naphtha market may soon reach a turning point.That said,a la

4、rge portion of Middle East naphtha exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz,and following the escalation of risks over the past weekend,freight rates for oil tankers surged rapidly.This has led to a further widening of EastWest price spreads and a notable strengthening of monthly spreads for Asian

5、naphtha and propane.However,the overall naphtha cracking margin remains weak due to downstream profitability constraints.Looking ahead,extreme geopolitical risks remain a key focus.If the Strait of Hormuz is temporarily blocked,both naphtha and propane supplies may be severely disrupted,potentially

6、triggering a wave of production cuts across downstream petrochemical products.June June 1 18 8,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Government Bond Futures:Geopolitical disruptions have supported a short-term rebound in the bond market