【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 16, 2025-250616（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 16,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Oilseeds:U.S.biofuel policy has provided a significant boost,reigniting demand for soybean oil.On the evening of June 13,the U.S.Env

2、ironmental Protection Agency(EPA)released a proposed rule for the 20262027 biofuel mandate,significantly raising the blending volume of biomass-based diesel to 5.61 billion gallons in 2026up 67%from the current 3.35 billion gallons.This proposal aligns with the targets sought by a coalition of petro

3、leum and biofuel industry groups.If implemented,this policy is expected to remove approximately 1.2 million tonnes of U.S.soybean oil from global export supply in the 2025/26 season,granting it renewed demand-driven pricing power.Following the announcement,all soybean oil futures contracts hit the l

4、imit-up during the night session on June 13,triggering a strong rally in domestic oils and fats markets.Meanwhile,the bearish impact from palm oils AprilMay production surge is gradually being priced in,and for over a month,the palm oil market has lacked a clear fundamental driver.The unexpected bul

5、lish catalyst from U.S.soybean oil may now provide a turning point.Going forward,attention should be paid to the extent of price increases and the risk of a short squeeze that could challenge the prevailing bearish narrative in the oil complex.Stock Index Futures:Domestic factors continue to provide

6、 support.Last week,after the market broke above the 3400-point level,the escalating Middle East tensions triggered a late-session pullback.Over the weekend,June June 1 16 6,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 financial data for May sh