【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 11, 2025-250611（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 11,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Stainless Steel:Short-term consolidation at low levels;easing of mid-term pressure depends on production cuts.In the short term,fund

2、amentals remain weak.Previous high production levels,combined with seasonal off-peak demand,continue to weigh on prices,limiting upside potential.The pressure relief following tariff easing has not been very pronounced.In June,negative feedback began to transmit to the supply side,potentially trigge

3、ring passive production cuts upstream.Stainless steel production in June is expected at 3.239 million tons,down 1%year-on-year and 5%month-on-month,with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate falling to 4%.Indonesias stainless steel production is also seeing marginal cutsJune output is estimated at

4、 360,000 tons,down 9%year-on-year and flat month-on-month,with cumulative growth turning negative at-2%.If the expected production cuts materialize in June,oversupply pressure may ease moderately in the midterm.There could be an opportunity for price recovery in Q3.However,due to the significantly h

5、igher supply elasticity upstream compared to downstream,and the seasonal nickel ore premium correction in Indonesia during Q3,a substantial price rebound in stainless steel may still be difficult.Zinc:Medium-term outlook remains bearish;onshore-offshore arbitrage positions can be maintained.June Jun

6、e 1 11 1,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 The logic that increased zinc ore supply is transmitting into growing smelting supply pressure remains intact.Refinery output is rising post-maintenance,while demand is entering the seasona