【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 9, 2025-250609（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 9,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Ferrous sector:Markets follow the mainstream trend but contradicts the minor trend;short the rebound in ferrous.The mainstream trend

2、is bearish.On the demand side,the floor area of real estate for sale continues to increase.In the absence of speculative demand,the process of active destocking remains lengthy.New project starts have not yet bottomed out and will continue to drag down steel demand.The core of infrastructure lies in

3、 the shift of investment structure.The focus of infrastructure investment is mainly around new productive forces and areas related to science,technology,and peoples livelihood.The proportion of traditional high steel-consuming industries continues to decline.In manufacturing,after the saturation of

4、new energy vehicles and photovoltaics,incremental demand is limited.The replacement of existing stock in the“two new”areas continues to be the focus.Overall steel consumption in manufacturing is viewed as only slightly increasing.The export outlook for industrial goods is not optimistic due to tarif

5、fs and trade frictions.The repeated swings in Trumps policies will greatly prolong the global demand recovery and the restocking cycle of the manufacturing sector.The contradiction in total steel net exports lies in price-for-volume trade-offs,which is a passive adjustment item for domestic demand.H

6、owever,this year more Asian countries have imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel,raising trade barriers,and exports have begun to encounter obstacles.June June 9 9,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 On the industry side,steel