【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 3, 2025-250603（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 3,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Crude Oil:In Saturdays OPEC+statement,eight member countriesSaudi Arabia,Russia,Iraq,the UAE,Kuwait,Kazakhstan,Algeria,and Omanannoun

2、ced a combined production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July.However,they emphasized that this incremental output could be paused or reversed depending on market dynamics.The group also reaffirmed its commitment to fully compensate for any production above agreed quotas since January 2024.E

3、xcluding the compensatory cut plan,the total nominal production increase announced from April to July has exceeded 1.3 million barrels per day.That said,uncertainties remain regarding actual supply,as the compensatory plan may reduce the effective output.Under this scenario,the drawdown potential fo

4、r crude inventories in Q3 is reduced,and the likelihood of stock builds in Q4 increases significantly.Given the possibility of an additional 411,000 bpd increase in August,the probability of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year remains high,and global crude benchmarks may trend to n

5、ew lows in the medium to long term.However,some phases of inventory draws are still possible in Q3 due to strong seasonal demand elasticity.Also,with inventories at key delivery hubs like Cushing remaining low,certain grades of crude may continue to see strengthening time spreads.Strategically,it is

6、 recommended to take profits on long positions during rallies and consider a tactical,range-bound approach.Calendar spread(bull spread)positions can be held.June 3,2025June 3,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Copper:Overseas copper price