【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 26, 2025-250626（7页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 26,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Offset printing paper:The degree of overcapacity continues to intensify,and the overall trend is expected to remain weak and volatil

2、e in the second half of the year.The growth rate of terminal consumption is significantly lower than the pace of capacity additions,and the profits available within the year provide some support for maintaining high operating rates.Under conditions of oversupply,the price of offset printing paper is

3、 still in the process of bottoming out,and it is expected that prices across the entire industry chain will continue to decline.Furthermore,if Chenming resumes production,pressure on paper prices may increase even further.Consumption of offset printing paper is clearly seasonal.The period from Septe

4、mber to November is the bidding season for teaching materials used in the following spring,during which there may be seasonal restocking by distributors and some improvement in consumption.From the perspective of scarcity,the degree of dependency between upstream and downstream,the competitive lands

5、cape at various stages,and the level of overcapacity,overseas pulp mills have stronger bargaining power than papermaking enterprises and hold a more advantageous position in the profit distribution of the industrial chain.As for strategy,once futures are listed,attention can be paid to shorting proc

6、essing margins during price rallies(i.e.,long pulp,short offset printing paper).June June 2 26 6,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Stock Index Futures:The bullish pattern continues.In recent days,the market has seen a notable reboun