【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 21, 2025-250721（7页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 21,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Alumina:Surged during Friday night session,with short-term inflows driving prices higher.The alumina market is following the broader

2、 bullish trend and should be treated with a near-term positive bias.A confirmed turning point will likely require a more noticeable inventory buildup,but price momentum may once again receive speculative support.Over the past week,spot alumina prices continued to rise.Based on the average of four ma

3、jor platforms,regions such as Shanxi,Henan,Shandong,Guangxi,Guizhou,and Inner Mongolia all saw across-the-board increases.Meanwhile,forward spot FOB Australia prices also edged up to$368/ton.According to Aladdiny and Mysteel inventory data,inventory accumulation is mixed.Seasonally,total inventory l

4、evels remain relatively low.Although the domestic alumina market is indeed undergoing a recovery and inventory accumulation phase,apparent inventory increases are not significant.Additionally,domestic supply may face uncertainties,including potential increases in exports and possible production rest

5、rictions in northern regions in August.In the near term,it is recommended to closely monitor the overall risk sentiment in Chinas industrial commodities market,the extent of inventory buildup in commercial stockpiles,the volume of deliveries from Xinjiang warehouses,and the tightness of spot supply.

6、July July 2121,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Chart 1：Market Snapshot Source：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Open Interest Chart 2:Open Interest of IF Chart 3:Open Interest of IH Source：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Sourc