【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 17, 2025-250617（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 17,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Crude Oil:Geopolitics are not the only bullish factorprices may challenge$85/bbl.Last night,rumors surfaced that Iran might seek rec

2、onciliation with Israel,triggering a sharp pullback in oil prices across global marketsdown by nearly 10%from Fridays night session highs.Nearby calendar spreads also narrowed.However,oil prices subsequently stabilized,with WTI holding above the$70/bbl level,indicating resilience.In the short term,d

3、espite unpredictable geopolitical developments,the crude oil market remains fundamentally healthy.According to OPECs latest monthly report,OPEC+production increased by only 180,000 barrels per day in Mayfar below the markets expectation of 411,000 barrels per day.Additionally,seasonal destocking of

4、global crude inventories in Q3 remains a plausible narrative.North American and European inventories are at neutral-to-low absolute levels,and Asian floating storage has started to draw down.We believe the downside for front-month calendar spreads is limited,and after the recent consolidation,oil pr

5、ices may resume their upward trend.Strategically,long positions on the right side of the trend can be considered for continuation.Methanol:A direct proxy for geopolitical risk,with increased short-term volatility.June June 1 17 7,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUT

6、URES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Given that over half of Chinas methanol imports come from Iran,shifts in the Iranian geopolitical landscape have a pronounced impact on the methanol market.According to the latest reports,Irans methanol ports and export operations remain largely normal for now.Ports a