【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 9, 2025-250709（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 9,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Alumina:Last Wednesday,driven by sudden market sentiment surrounding the“anti-involution”narrative,the AO futures market briefly brok

2、e through the 3000 mark.The highly elastic part of this price surge could be attributed to capital-driven speculative activity.Recently,spot alumina prices have remained stable,while deliverable inventories are relatively low,and the near-month position-to-inventory ratio remains highthis has been t

3、he main driver behind the rally in the futures market.According to spot market feedback,low inventory levels at the Xinjiang delivery warehouse,combined with the rise in AO futures prices,have opened up an arbitrage window for delivery on the exchange.This has diverted some supply away from aluminum

4、 smelters and tightened alumina availability for intermediaries.Under normal industry logic,considering that alumina has entered a new inventory accumulation cycle and overseas supplies are flowing into the Chinese market,we lean toward the view that the AO futures valuation should not be too high.M

5、oreover,the“anti-involution”policy has not provided concrete implementation guidelines,and the recent price spike is more sentiment-driven than fundamentally justified.That said,there are signs of implicit production cuts at some northern facilities,which means the actual net production resumption h

6、as not significantly translated into inventory accumulation.This factor requires ongoing monitoring.In addition,import and export logistics July July 9 9,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 should be closely watched for marginal shift