【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 3, 2025-250703（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 3,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon:On July 1,2025,according to Xinhua News Agency,the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Econ

2、omic Affairs Commission was held,during which it was emphasized that efforts should focus on key difficulties and challenges,and that disorderly low-price competition among enterprises should be regulated in accordance with laws and regulations.The meeting also called for guiding enterprises to impr

3、ove product quality and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity.In addition,the Cement Industry Association released a guidance document on“anti-involution and stabilizing growth,”which has led the market to anticipate the potential introduction of similar“anti-involution”policies

4、 for the photovoltaic industry.In response to this,polysilicon producers raised their quotations,and the polysilicon futures market surged,hitting the daily limit-up.Industrial silicon futures also saw a sharp rise,driven by the prevailing sentiment in the market.For polysilicon,although the industr

5、y continues to face a supply growth and weak demand pattern,along with significant inventory pressure,the market is currently focused more on policy-driven expectations than on fundamentals.As a result,there is a risk that once sentiment fades,prices may return to reflect underlying fundamentals.Clo

6、se attention will need to be paid to the specific details and timing of any actual policy measures.J July uly 3 3,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 For industrial silicon,short-term supply disruptions due to unexpected upstream prod