【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 20, 2025-250620（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 20,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Caustic Soda:Spot market under pressure,weak trend.Yesterday,caustic soda futures continued to decline,mainly due to a further reduc

2、tion in purchase prices by alumina producers in Shandong.Starting June 20,major alumina plants in Shandong reduced the purchase price of 32%ion-exchange membrane caustic soda by 20 yuan/ton,with the ex-factory price set at 780 yuan/ton.With expectations of spot price cuts,stocking demand from downst

3、ream users and traders has significantly weakened,intensifying the markets negative feedback.At the same time,due to the rapid decline in spot prices,the pressure on near-month futures longs to take delivery has increased,and the logic of near-month basis narrowing can no longer support the market.T

4、herefore,in the short term,caustic soda spot prices remain under pressure,with the trend still weak.The continuous decline in caustic soda prices throughout June is mainly due to a collapse in costs,which led to a situation of high profits and high outputthis will continue to impact the market.The d

5、ominant market logic is now shorting caustic soda margins.From the cost side,considering the overall decline in coal and electricity prices this year,the marginal production cost for caustic soda in Shandong has dropped to 2,069 yuan/ton.Enterprises with captive power plants have no incentive to red

6、uce production,and grid-powered enterprises still have considerable profit margins.This opens up downside room in caustic soda valuation,putting pressure on long-dated contract prices.June June 2020,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2