【招银国际】China Policy: Policy signals from the NPC meeting-250306（9页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 6 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Policy Policy signals from the NPC meeting China maintains the 5%GDP growth tar

2、get with more proactive fiscal policy and moderately easing monetary policy,which is well anticipated by the market.In face of deflation risk and the Trump 2.0 shock,China will focus on boosting domestic consumption,stabilising the property market and stimulating technology innovation.China will ext

3、end the trade-in program in durables,strengthen the social safety net and provide childcare subsidies to boost consumption.The cabinet will push local governments to intensify efforts in urban village renovation,land buyback and property project acquisition to accelerate the rebalancing of housing s

4、upply and demand.It will also leverage all policies to facilitate the extensive application of large-scale AI models,intelligent terminals,smart equipment and self-made aircrafts and chips.Macro policies may remain stable in 1H25 as economic activity improves and the worst of the Trump 2.0 shock is

5、yet to come.However,policymakers may be under pressure to ease policy further in 2H25 especially in the last quarter as the stimulus effects of domestic policies could diminish and the negative impact of Trumps tariffs could further release.We expect additional RRR cuts by 50bps and LPR cuts by 20bp

6、s in 2H25.Clearer anti-deflation goal.China has changed the CPI growth target from not more than 3%in the past several years to 2%in 2025.By adopting a clearer and internationally consistent inflation target,the cabinet has signalled a stronger determination to combat the deflation pressure.Premier