1、Webcast 18 July 2025European EnergyMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH EUROPEMorgan Stanley&Co.International plc+Martijn RatsEQUITY ANALYST AND COMMODITIES STRATEGISTMartijn.R+44 207 425 6618Guilherme LevyEQUITY ANALYSTGuilherme.L+44 207 425 6616Charlotte FirkinsCOMMODITIES STRATEGISTCharlotte.F+44 207 425 3866

2、Alice Bergier WinogradEQUITY ANALYSTAlice.W+44 207 425 0174Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research.I

3、nvestors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are not registered with FINRA,may not be associated persons

4、 of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company,public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.All information as at 17 July 2025July 18,2025 10:30 AM GMTGlobal oil 3Looking backGlobal inventories have built sharply,b

5、ut not at all in the Atlantic Basin 4BalanceDemand remains soft;non-OPEC supply growth coming through 5BalanceOPEC supply increasing,altogether driving surplus after the summerCurrentquarter 6InventoriesTaking into account that a smaller share of the global imbalance shows up in commercial stocks,we

6、 still see those stocks building 7PricesAt$60/bbl,storage economics likely become attractive,providing supportDuring covid,the forward curve enabled storage over every time horizon$60European gas 9StorageEuropes injection season has progressed in line with the 10Y avg so far,as strong global LNG sup