1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ Listen to our insightsFind out moreHSBCGlobal

2、InvestmentResearchPodcasts Tightness in the urea market continues with supply disruptions at key exporters,Egypt and Iran Strong demand from India,upcoming buying season in Brazil and lower China export volumes to keep prices elevated Reiterate Buy on IQCD,SAFCO and Maaden,Hold on CF and Fertiglobe;

3、we update TPs for all names in this report Middle Eastern geopolitics has disrupted the urea market,pushing pricing higher:Egypt and Iran collectively account for c18%of global urea trade and production in the countries was affected by the Israel/Iran conflict in June.While production is now back on

4、line,the disruption tightened the urea market,pushing spot prices up:Middle East spot(up+30%vs May)and Black sea(up+15%).Pricing sentiment has been further boosted by Indian tenders:Indias NFL has agreed to buy 1.3m tons of urea at USD495/t as per ICIS news.We estimate that India(c14%of global impor

5、ts)needs an additional 3.5m tons in imports over the next few months,which would absorb meaningful supply in a tight market.Chinese export volumes not sufficient to reset pricing:China has announced that it is relaxing its ban on urea exports and has set its export quota at c2m tons.We believe this

6、volume would be insufficient to counter the demand from India,constrained ME supply and upcoming buying interest from Brazil.We raise our urea price estimates for 2025:Given higher spot prices,we raise our urea estimates by 7%and 6%for 2025 for Black Sea and ME,respectively.We see current consensus