1、APRIL 2025Societe Generale(“SG”)does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that SG may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in

2、 making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE APPENDIX AT THE END OF THIS REPORT FOR THE ANALYST(S)CERTIFICATION(S),IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS.ALTERNATIVELY,VISIT OUR GLOBAL RESEARCH DISCLOSURE WEBSITEJAPAN EQUITY STRATEGYTsutomu SaitoJapan Equity Strategist&Multi asset strategist+81 3 677

3、7 Macro uncertainty moving from tariffs to currency Focus on the domestic driversFrank BenzimraHead of Asia Equity Strategy&Multi asset strategist+852 2166 2APRIL 2025MARKET CYCLE:THE REFLATION STAGEMARKET CYCLE:THE REFLATION STAGESource:SG Cross Asset Research/Equity strategy,Bloomberg;Since 2013 m

4、eans return from 31 Dec 2012 to 12 Feb 2025 close)The third stage of the market cycle-10%-5%0%5%10%15%84868890929496980002040608101214161820222410Y JGB yieldNominal GDP growth,yoyThe bubble 23The two lost decadesReflation13APRIL 2025TOTAL SHAREHOLDER YIELDS HAVE INCREASEDTOTAL SHAREHOLDER YIELDS HAV

5、E INCREASEDSource:SG Cross Asset Research/Equity strategy,QUICKShareholder yields remain high albeit market cap is increasingShareholder returns rising faster than profit growth051015202530354045505505101520252004200620082010201220142016201820202022(JPYtn)(FY)(JPYtn)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52004 2006

6、 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022Dividend yieldShare buybacks yieldTotal shareholder yield(%)(FY)4APRIL 2025WHAT HAPPENED IN 1980S JAPANWHAT HAPPENED IN 1980S JAPAN-US TRADE WAR?US TRADE WAR?Large trade surplus led to yen appreciationJapanese automakers restricted car exports voluntarilySourc