1、M Ideametal&ROCK|EuropeChina Sentiment Shift China is back in focus,with supply side reform expectations supporting iron ore,coking coal and lithium.So far,we think for metals this is more of a shift in sentiment than fundamentals.Morgan Stanley&Co.International plc+Amy Gower(Amy Sergeant),CFACommod

2、ities Strategist Amy.G +44 20 7677-6937 Martijn Rats,CFAEquity Analyst and Commodities Strategist Martijn.R +44 20 7425-6618 Exhibit 5 :Iron ore positioning has seen a sharp turnaround,with both short covering and new longs 6080100120140160-800-600-400-2000200400600Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-

3、24Jan-25May-25$/t CFR China 62%Fe000 lotsSGX Iron Ore Futures&Options Managed Money Net PositioningManaged Money LongManaged Money ShortNetIron Ore Price(RH Axis)Source:SGXAlso see:metal&ROCK:The Price Deck 3Q25:Tariffs,China and the USD(14 Jul 2025)A sentiment shift in China.Policy signals around C

4、hinas supply side reform,steel production cuts,and the announcement of a large infrastructure project have turned sentiment upwards.In particular,metals markets have focused on planned supply side reforms in key sectors including non-ferrous metals and a notice on reining in coal overproduction,whil

5、e steel cuts are driving hopes of higher steel margins,boosting iron ore and met coal.The formal launch of the Tibet hydropower project is driving hope of more infrastructure investment too.is bringing upwards price action in previously unloved commodities:Since the start of July,iron ore has rallie

6、d 11%,China coking coal futures are up 51%,far outpacing the Australian benchmark futures(+12%)and the physical price(+1%),alumina is up 16%,spodumene is up 28%and lithium carbonate is 18%higher.However,fundamentals are lagging behind.As our economists note,to deliver on these supply reform policies