世界气象组织（WMO）：2025年-2029年全球年度至十年气候最新通报（英文版）（27页）.pdf

1、WEATHER CLIMATE WATERWMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update2025-20292 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2025 Key Messages The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO).It provides a synthesis

2、of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres.The latest predictions show that:Global mean temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the five-year period 2025-2029.The annually averaged global

3、mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2C and 1.9C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900.It is likely(86%chance)that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year betwe

4、en 2025 and 2029.It is also likely(70%chance)that the 2025-2029 five-year mean will exceed 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average.It is likely(80%chance)that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record(currently 2024)and although exceptionally unlikely,there is n

5、ow also a chance(1%)of at least one year exceeding 2C of warming in the next five years.Long-term warming(averaged over decades)remains below 1.5C.The five-year average temperature in the Nio 3.4 region relative to the whole tropics indicates mixed or mainly neutral ENSO conditions in this period.Th

6、e average Arctic temperature anomaly over the next five extended winters(November to March),relative to the recent climatological normal(the average of the years 1991-2020),is predicted to be 2.4C,more than three and a half times as large as the anomaly in global mean temperature.Predictions of Arct