牛津经济研究院&ICC：2025世界贸易组织解散对发展中经济体的影响研究报告：国家层面分析（英文版）（21页）.pdf

1、The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolutionA country-level analysisJune 2025June 2025|The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution:A country-level analysis|2Table of contentsExecutive summary.31.Introduction.62.Modelling approach.83.Country-level impact results.113.1 Impact on tra

2、de flows.113.2 Impact on FDI.133.3 Impact on GDP.14Appendix I:Methodology.16Appendix II:Bibliography.20June 2025|The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution:A country-level analysis|3Executive summaryOxford Economics were commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce(ICC)in April 2

3、024 to provide an independent assessment of the potential impact of WTO dissolution on developing economies1.This report revisits the analysis presented in that paper,drilling down to quantify national-level impacts for a sample of ten countries.The modelling approach and assumptions we employ align

4、 with our previous report,ensuring that results are comparable across the two papers.Scenario assumptions around WTO dissolution The headwinds buffeting the WTO have only grown in intensity since the publication of our earlier report in April 2024.Specifically,recent trade policy announcements from

5、the new US administration are undermining the WTOs core principles of reciprocal tariff commitments,non-discrimination and transparency.The impact on the WTO could be profound,as this undermines its role in mediating disputes and enforcing equitable rules,raising the risk of a complete breakdown of

6、international cooperation.A number of scenarios could be envisaged that would result in the abandonment of the rules-based multilateral trading system and WTO dissolution.We explore a scenario(aligning with the assumptions in our previous report),where gradual trust erosion eventually results in the