财政对通货膨胀的影响.pdf

1、Bank of Korea International ConferenceFiscal Influences on Inflation By Robert Barro and Francesco BianchiDiscussion:Saki BigioWhy This Paper Matters to MeI lived through Perus hyperinflationWas taught fiscal-monetary theory(e.g,Sargent&Wallace)but inflationary finance,absent from core NK(DSGE)model

2、sFrancesco:been pushing the frontier,paper no exceptionBarro-BianchiOECD country panelFinding:strong link between and Gwith debt maturity and debt-level weakening linkInterpretation:evidence of Fiscal Theory of Price Level(FTPL)Key claim:inflation automatically erodes public debt,enabling solvencyIn

3、flationary Finance FTPLData show inflation indeed eroded public debtclear evidence of inflationary financeBut,paper presents this as evidence of FTPLI disagree:evidence neither in favor nor against FTPLRisky interpretation:may conceal other risksA different look at the Govs BudgetDeterministic,big s

4、hock at Nominal payment schedule ,maturity,Debt contracted at is t 0,t=0ft()max Tft=f,ft(0)=0t 0btbt=rbt+gt t+ft(0)Ptff0()ft()expiring scheduleDebt Erotionexpired timeerotion in that time Real payment schedule satisfies:Present value of government budget:present value primary deficits:ft()=f0(+t)et0

5、(s)ds+T0et0r(s)ds f0(t)et0(s)dsdt=eT0r(s)ds bT=T0et0r(s)ds(gt t)dtThe Barro-Bianchi FormulaClean comparative static(constant inflation)where and :share at maturity Inflation inversely to market value debt and Macaulay maturityd d=1 =T0e0i(s)dsf0()d=T0 ()d()Theory meets DataMain Regressiond =1 d Budg

6、et Constraints Are Not FTPLResults validate inflationary financenot FTPLFTPL is about equilibrium selection,not budget constraintsBudget identities holds in all models:NK,monetarist,FTPLCochrane(Ch.22,2023):“Equivalence is equivalence.The government debt valuation equation is an