牛津经济研究院&Wealthfront ：2025美国千禧一代财富增长预测报告（英文版）（21页）.pdf

1、FORECASTING THE GROWTH OF MILLENNIAL WEALTH IN THE USWealthfrontApril 202520303ContentsSection 1Methodological overview0505Section 2Key findings1010Section 3AppendixMethodology overviewMethodological approachWe use a bottom-up approach that follows 8 core steps.The US millennial wealth forecast comb

2、ines income,savings,and wealth trends seen in previous generations with macroeconomic forecasts from Oxford Economics Global Economic Model(GEM).*These categories are split out because they are not captured by the relationship between the savings rate and income but are required to estimate millenni

3、als net wealth.1Calculate the evolution of the savings rate for the average US millennial household relative to the national saving rate.2Forecast the evolution of household income for the average millennial household relative to national income levels.3Estimate the evolution of asset allocation for

4、 millennial households.4Forecast the value of millennials liabilities and consumer durables relative to the national level capturing changes as households age.*5Forecast the number of millennial households.6Map assets and liabilities to GEM forecasts to capture returns on existing asset stock and na

5、tional asset/liability trends.7Combine steps 16 for a bottom-up forecast of total asset growth/portfolio composition for millennial households.8Project the share of assets and liabilities by income groups across the millennial cohort.Key findingsAnnual growth in millennial net wealth is expected to

6、be around 9%in inflation adjusted terms over the forecast periodCombining Oxford Economics macroeconomic forecasts with the modelling assumption set out in the previous section,we have produced a forecast for millennial net wealth at the aggregate,asset,and centile level.Millennial net wealth is exp