1、03 December 202404Transforming pharma:The GLP-1 gold rushAllianz ResearchThe weight is over:How GLP-1 16What do weight-loss drugs mean for public finances and the insurance industry?12What could go wrong?treatments are reshaping pharma and beyond 21The food industry feels the biteAllianz Research A

2、golden formula for pharma growth.The pharmaceutical industry is cooking up a storm,with weight-loss drugs serving as the main course.Diabetes and obesity have become the star ingredients driving the sectors expansion,sidelining traditional staples like oncology and immunology.Sales of GLP-1 blockbus

3、ters Semaglutide and Tirzepatide have risen from a modest EUR4.5bn in 2021 to a sumptuous EUR21.2bn in 2023.This years sales of GLP-1 drugs are on a rapid boil at+92%y/y.Particularly,Ozempic is expected to be the second best-selling drug globally(EUR17bn of revenues)in 2024.Novo Nordisk and Eli Lill

4、y,the chefs behind these hits,are forecasted to see their revenue simmering at+24%and+33%growth this year,well above the industrys average of+7%y/y and feeding the expectations that the GLP-1 market could balloon to EUR92bn by 2030.With investor appetites whetted,Novo Nordisk now reigns as the large

5、st European company by market cap,while Eli Lilly has positioned itself as a hefty rival to the US stock markets Magnificent 7.A recipe for trouble.Despite the sizzle,theres a risk of the dish burning.Regulatory scrutiny over the safety of weight-loss drugs and the encroachment of generic and copyca

6、t products could sour the feast.Some consumers have reported side effects such as nausea and diarrhea,raising questions about long-term palatability.Meanwhile,the competitive kitchen is heating up:generic alternatives may debut as patents expire,particularly for Semaglutide in China in 2026.Copycat