1、www.theicct.org communicationstheicct.orgtheicct.org WORKING PAPERAssessment of automotive steel demand in the United StatesLogan Pierce and Peter SlowikINTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUNDTo reach international climate targets,it is necessary for the steel industry to decarbonize.Although multiple technolog

2、ies exist to produce low-emission and fossil fuel-free steel,the vast majority of steel is produced from coal-based technologies(Bui et al.,2024).The transition away from conventional steelmaking pathways to greener alternatives is just beginning in the United States,and large-scale funding opportun

3、ities for industrial decarbonization are emerging at the federal level(Gallucci,2024;Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy,2024;Grossman&von dem Hagen,2024;Industrious Labs&Public Citizen,2024).Meanwhile,in the transportation sector,electric vehicle sales continue to increase year-over-year,globa

4、lly and in the United States(EV Volumes,n.d.;Isenstadt,2024).In April 2024,the United States finalized new greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions standards that set light-and medium-duty vehicle tailpipe emissions on a path towards zero emissions(Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards,2024).As the sales share of

5、 new vehicles with zero emissions at the tailpipe increases,the emissions associated with the materials used to manufacture such vehicles will represent a greater share of total life-cycle emissions.In the United States,the automotive industry is the third-largest consumer of steel and,for some stee

6、lmakers,represents their largest revenue source(U.S.Geological Survey,2024;Warrian&Mulhern,2005).As automakers expand efforts to address emissions embodied within their vehicles,manufacturers are thus well positioned to demand“green”fossil-free steel and spearhead steel decarbonization efforts in th