【公司研究】珠江啤酒-深耕华南市场结构加速升级-2020200630[33页].pdf

1、 / CR5201263.5% 201871.6% 2012-2018 15.88%6.90%-4.49% 9%31% 220/ 2018 36.70% 0 3+N 201946.84%6.29pct 3219/3.17% + IP 2020-2022EPS0.230.26 0.292020-2022PE41X/37X/33X11.7 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 4,039 4,244 4,269 4,585 4,825 (+/-)% 7.33% 5.06% 0.60% 7.41% 5.23% 366 497 516 570 634 (+/-)% 97.68%

2、35.77% 3.69% 10.52% 11.17% 0.17 0.22 0.23 0.26 0.29 57.62 42.44 40.94 37.04 33.32 2.55 2.45 2.31 2.17 2.04 (%) 4.46% 5.80% 5.67% 5.90% 6.16% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 2,213 2,213 2,213 2,213 2,213 2020/6/24 6 11.70 9.54 12 5.4010.29 21,115 2,213 A 2,213 B/H 0/0 19 -16% -3% 10% 23% 36% 49%

3、 2019/72019/102020/12020/4 % 1M 3M 12M 17% 47% 53% 9% 33% 46% -20200626 -20200614 -20200608 S0550515060001 021-20361174 S0550518120001 021-20362340 qi_ S0550119080009 021-20363244 S0550518120001 qi_ 002461 2020-06-30 2 / 33 1. . 5 1.1. . 5 1.2. . 6 1.3. . 8 2. . 10 2.1. . 10 2.2. . 15 2.2.1. . 16 2.

4、2.2. . 17 3. . 19 3.1. . 19 3.2. . 21 3.2.1. . 21 3.2.2. . 22 3.3. . 23 4. . 24 4.1. . 24 4.2. . 26 4.3. . 28 5. . 29 3 / 33 1 . 6 2 . 7 3 . 7 4 . 8 5 . 8 6 . 9 7 . 9 8 . 10 9 .11 10CR5 . 12 11 . 12 12CR5 . 14 1324%. 15 14. 15 152013 . 15 16 . 15 17 . 16 18. 17 194235 . 17 202012-2018CAGR15.88% . 17

5、 21EBITDA . 19 22. 20 23 . 20 24 . 21 25. 21 26/ . 21 27. 21 28 . 22 29 . 23 30. 23 31. 23 32. 24 33 . 24 34. 25 35GDP. 25 36 . 25 37 . 26 38 . 27 39 . 27 40 . 28 41 . 28 42-. 28 4 / 33 43. 29 1 . 5 22020 . 6 3 . 12 42012-2018 . 18 52012-2018 . 18 6 . 19 7 . 25 8 . 29 9 . 30 5 / 33 1. 1.1. 2010818 2

6、2030% 1985 1993 1 1982 1985 5 1986 5 1989 1993 1999 2002 1.6 24% 2003 ALE 2004 “” 2005 100 2009 2010 002461.SZ 2017 15.9 29.99% 2018 2019 Wind 201731 243.12 29.99% 6 / 33 1 Wind 22020 31.98% 7077813 29.99% 66377.72 31528.39 23.74% 52535.14 0.54% 1200.00 556.09 0.54% 1200.00 0.49% 1080.30 273.84 2 0.