【公司研究】值得买-“购物先上值得买”内容生态一处开-2020200630[32页].pdf

1、 / A 2019 2016-201948.7% 50.2% 20196.621.1971.6% 18.0%2020479.51 + 2040 2019432 151GMVUGCGMV 117%64.2%8.66 +23.19%130.59+15.61% 76%UGC +/MCN 3C3C GMV201850%2020 410MCN 2020-20221.5/1.8/2.2 EPS1.86/2.25/2.67PE64.01x/52.79x/44.47x PS2020140.48 173.43, 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 508 662 878 1,099 1,

2、322 (+/-)% 38.31% 30.43% 32.70% 25.05% 20.37% 96 119 150 181 215 (+/-)% 10.99% 24.35% 25.61% 21.27% 18.71% 1.19 1.48 1.86 2.25 2.67 0.00 97.50 64.01 52.79 44.47 0.00 15.46 10.32 8.63 7.23 (%) 29.21% 15.85% 16.12% 16.35% 16.25% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 40 53 81 81 81 2020/6/24 6 173.43 11

3、8.76 12 34.10216.40 9,570 81 A 81 B/H 0/0 1 -8% 75% 158% 241% 324% 407% 2019/72019/102020/12020/4 % 1M 3M 12M 3% 18% 0% -5% 4% -8% 618 20200623 618 20200603 20200511 20200407 S0550519120001 021-20363237 300785 2020-06-30 2 / 32 1.A . 5 1.1. 5 1.2. 6 1.3.“+”. 8 1.3.1. 8 1.3.2.+ . 9 1.4. 11 2.+ . 14 2

4、.1. . 14 2.2. . 15 2.2.1. . 15 2.2.2. . 17 3.+ . 18 3.1. . 18 3.2.+ . 20 3.2.1. 20 3.2.2. 23 3.2.3. 25 3.3.+ . 26 4. . 28 4.1. . 28 4.2. . 28 4.3. 28 5. . 29 1 . 5 2 . 6 3 . 6 42016-2019 . 8 52018-2019 . 8 62016-2019 . 9 72016-2019 . 9 82016-2019GMV . 9 92016-2019 . 9 3 / 32 102019“11” . 10 112020“6

5、18” . 10 122016-2019 . 10 132016-2019take rate . 10 142016-2018/ .11 152016-2018.11 162014-2019.11 172014-2019 . 12 182014-2019 . 12 192018Q1-2020Q1 . 12 202018Q1-2020Q1. 12 212014-2019. 13 222018Q1-2020Q1. 13 232014-2019 . 13 242014-2019. 13 252005-2019 . 14 262016-2019. 14 27 . 14 28. 15 292012-20

6、19 . 15 302015-2020 . 15 31. 16 322019. 16 332016-2021. 18 342016-2021. 18 35 . 19 36. 19 372016-2019. 20 382016-2019GMV . 20 39 . 21 40 . 21 412018-2019 . 23 422016-2019UGCUGC . 23 432016-2018 . 24 44 . 24 45“618” . 24 46“11” . 24 47 . 25 48“” . 26 492016-2018GMV . 26 50. 26 512016-2018 . 27 12020Q