德勤：2025年银行业及资本市场展望报告（英文版）（36页）.pdf

1、2025 banking and capital markets outlook As the banking industry adapts to a low-growth,lower-rate environment,banks can reinforce their foundation for sustainable growth with ingenuity and discipline.Deloitte Center for Financial ServicesTable of ContentsMacroeconomic shifts and US banksPotential i

2、mpacts of Basel III EndgameBoosting noninterest incomeRetail bankingPaymentsWealth managementInvestment banking and capital marketsTech modernization and AIManaging costs more sustainablyPaving a future pathEndnotesContacts310141515161819253031342025 banking and capital markets outlook|Macroeconomic

3、 shifts and US banks1.Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties should keep bank executives on their toes.2.Higher deposit costs will keep net interest income in check.3.Noninterest income could offer a bright spot for topline growth.4.Higher compensation expenses and technology investments shoul

4、d keep expenses elevated.5.Credit quality is expected to normalize but could edge higher in 2025.Howand to what extentwill macroeconomic shifts impact US banks in 2025?Bank executives will be welcoming 2025 with mixed emotions,unsure how the year will unfold and reshape banks fortunes.While inflatio

5、nary pressures have subsided and interest rates are dropping,subpar economic growth,continuing geopolitical shocks,and regulatory uncertainty will likely give bank CEOs anxiety.Adapting to a low-growth,low-rate environment will be a challenge.But many will be happy to close the chapter on 2024,a yea

6、r that was remarkable in many respects.The US economy will likely have performed better than expected in 2024,with annual GDP growth estimated to end at 2.7%,1 higher than forecast at the beginning of the year.2However,in 2025,economic growth is expected to decelerate and interest rates to drop mean