俄勒冈州交通规划：在快速变化和不确定的时代利用情景规划的案例研究.pdf

1、AdamArgoisaPrincipalPlannerintheOregonDepartmentofTransportationsTransportationPlanningUnit.HeiscurrentlymanagingtheOregonDOTsupdatetotheOregonTransportationPlan(OTP).Conference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningJonathanSlasonisaDirectorofPlanningatRSGandleadofthestrategicmodelingpractic

2、e.HeledthescenariodevelopmentandanalysisoftheOTPfortheconsultantteam.What is the OTP?APlanforODOTandOregon Multimodal Visionoutto2050 Policiesandstrategiesfortheentiretransportationlifecycle DirectsODOT Influencesotherstateagencies LocalsmustbeconsistentwithitOTP First Principles4Makecomplexityofthe

3、systemrelatableConsidertheWhoWhyWhatHowPlaytothestrengthsoftheprocessusingthetools,applyingthe“prescriptive”and“descriptive”accordinglyMetaepistemology:“thinkingabouthowwethink”5Complex System ThinkingconsiderthecomplexityofthesysteminarelatablewaySystemisaboutrelationshipsSystemisaboutrelationships

4、 Peopleandcommunities(socioeconomics)Peopleandinstitutions(government,industry)Peopleandinfrastructure Peopleandthenaturalenvironment Networksandflows(goods,resources)Meerow,Newell,and Stults(2016,45)Planning Process6Prescriptive:“Whatinformationdoweneed?”“Howwillwemakeinformedchoicesandcometoagreem

5、ent?”Tools:PMP,PI/O/C,charters,mediareleases,backgroundreportsDescriptive:“Whatishappeningintransportation?”“HowIsthesystemworking/notworkingforyou?”Tools:Virtual(sometimesinperson)engagement(virtualopenhouse,FocusGroups,transportationpersonas)Prescriptive:“Givenwhatweknowaboutx,whatcouldhappenify?”

6、“Whatshouldwedo?”Tools:ScenarioPlanning,virtualopenhouse2(informedchoices)Positioningthe“prescriptive”andthe“descriptive”Key Drivers of ChangeSocialEquityClimateChangePopulationandLaborForceChangesIndustryCompositionTrendsResiliency andDisasterPlanningEmergingTransportationTechnologyTrends1.2.3.4.5.