1、 摘要 10 月和 11 月，生产和出口增速较强。9 月底的增量宏观政策，在一定程度上改善消费和房地产。预计预计2024年四季度年四季度GDP同比为同比为5.0%，2024年年GDP同比为同比为4.9%，2024 年料将完成 5%左右的经济增速目标。预计预计2025年中国年中国GDP增速为增速为4.7%，四个季度的当季同比分别为 4.9%、4.8%、4.6%、4.6%，呈前高后低走势。2024 年四季度经济运行主要有三条主线：一是一是受以旧换新政策以及车企年底冲量促销的影响，汽车的生产、投资、零售数据都较为景气。二是二是政策利好下，房地产相关的商品房销售、买地、居民中长期贷款、家电零售、家具零

2、售和家装零售指标好转。三是三是美国加码打压中国高端芯片的发展，对中国电子设备相关的生产和投资都产生了冲击。当前经济存在“抢出口”效果明显弱于 2018 年、汽车行业景气的可持续存疑、内需仍受房地产拖累等问题，建议政府：做好应对外部冲击加剧的预案、大力发展二手车市场和汽车金融、加快推进地方财税体制改革。_ 北大汇丰智库经济组（撰稿人：邹欣）成稿时间：2024 年 12 月 31 日|总第 117 期|2023-2024 学年第 17 期 联系人：程云（0755-26032270，）Export remains strong,focusing on domestic demand in futur

3、e Abstract In October and November 2024,production and export growth rate performed better.Incremental macro policies in late September 2024,improved consumption and real estate to some extent.GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to be 5.0%,and GDP growth rate in 2024 is expecte

4、d to be 4.9%,which shows that the economic growth target of around 5%is expected to be accomplished in 2024.Chinas GDP growth rate is expected to be 4.7%in 2025,with growth rate of 4.9%,4.8%,4.6%,and 4.6%in the four quarters respectively,showing a trend of first high and then low.There are three mai

5、n lines in the fourth quarter of 2024:1.Due to the impact of the old-for-new policy and the year-end promotions of car companies,car production,investment,and retail sales indicators perform well.2.With favorable policies,real estate-related commercial housing sales,land purchases,medium-and long-te

6、rm residential loans,home appliance retail,furniture retail and home decoration retail indicators have improved.3.United States has stepped up its efforts to suppress the development of high-end chips in China,which has had a negative impact on Chinas production and investment related to electronic