奥纬咨询：2024私人信贷行业变革：在固定收益投资中的作用及“哑铃策略”的重要性分析报告（英文版）（35页）.pdf

1、A business of Marsh McLennanPrivate Credits next actAnd why the barbell tolls for fixed income investing October,2024Huw van Steenis2 Oliver WymanKEY DEBATES2Why is asset-based lending in focus?3Will bank-private credit partnerships work?4How to position around the financial system reshaping?1The ne

2、xt wave of bank disintermediation?3 Oliver WymanKEY DEBATES2Why is asset-based lending in focus?3Will bank-private credit partnerships work?4How to position around the financial system reshaping?1The next wave of bank disintermediation?4 Oliver WymanHow many times,how many decades are we going to le

3、arn this lesson of borrowing overnight and lending long?Whether it was the 1970s,the 1980s and 90s.I expect more disintermediationMichael Milken,April 2023“5 Oliver WymanPRIVATE CREDIT HAS BOOMED AND FORECAST TO DOUBLEIN 4-5 YEARSPrivate credit AUM by strategy$TN,comingled funds only26%33%23%2014201

4、520162017201820192020202120222%17%13%18%49%Q3 23Venture Debt2000Special SituationsMezzanineDistressedDirect lending20072%17%0.20.40.50.60.60.10.81.01.21.51.710.7+13%+20%PEREInfra.+14%+7%+17%+21%+14%+20%CAGRs of other Private Markets funds1.1.7TN is only the tip of the iceberg we estimate that at lea

5、st 3TN AUM is deployed in private debt via SMAs and Direct Investments(not in Preqin data)|Source:Preqin,excludes Funds of Funds6 Oliver WymanCommercial paperCorporate lending RMBsHigh yieldCMBSCredit cardsAuto loansSub-prime RMBSSynthetic credit riskPrivate Credit 1.0Mid-marketLeveraged financePriv

6、ate Credit 2.0Specialty financeCRE1974 mid 1980s1980s mid 1990sMid 1990s 2000s2000s2008 20222022 presentUS BANK DISINTERMEDIATION HAS WORKED IN LONG WAVESSource:Private Credits Next Act,April 2024 by Huw van Steenis and colleagues,Oliver Wyman7 Oliver WymanWEVE SEEN 50+YEARS OF US BANK DISINTERMEDIA