牛津经济研究院&国际商会：2024年WTO解体对发展中经济体的影响研究报告（英文版）（20页）.pdf

1、The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolutionApril 2024April 2024|The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution|2Table of contentsTable of contents.2Executive Summary.31.Introduction.62.Modelling assumptions.82.1 Scenario definition.82.2 Modelling approach.103.Economic impact results

2、.113.1 Impact on trade flows.113.2 Impact on foreign direct investment.123.3 Impact on productivity levels.123.4 Impact on GDP.13Appendix I:Methodology.15Appendix II:Bibliography.19April 2024|The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution|3Executive SummaryOxford Economics have been commissio

3、ned by the International Chamber of Commerce(ICC)to provide an independent assessment of the potential impact of WTO dissolution on developing economies(middle-income and low-income countries).This report details our findings and the assumptions underpinning our analysis.Scenario definitionA number

4、of scenarios could be envisaged that would result in the abandonment of the rules-based multilateral trading system and WTO dissolution.All would entail negative repercussions for global trade,but the level of severity varies considerably depending on the specific assumptions employed.For example,a

5、severe but plausible scenario could involve a global trade war resulting in policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation;at the opposite end of the spectrum,a less extreme scenario for WTO dissolution could involve a more gradual erosion of trust eventually resulting in a breakdown of members commitments

6、 to the rules-based system.We have taken a conservative approach to demonstrate our hypothesis that even a“best case”scenario for WTO dissolution would have substantial negative repercussions for developing economies that rely on trade as a critical enabler of growth.In our scenario,the demise of th