国际清算银行（BIS）：2026年年度经济报告（英文版）（133页）.pdf

1、Annual EconomicAnnual EconomicReportJune 2026 Bank for International Settlements 2026.All rights reserved.Limited extracts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated.www.bis.orgemailbis.orgFollow usAnnual EconomicAnnual EconomicReportJune 2026 The views expressed here do not neces

2、sarily reflect the views of the BIS member central banks.This publication is available on the BIS website(https:/www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2026e.htm).Bank for International Settlements 2026.All rights reserved.Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated.ISSN 2616-9428

3、(print)ISSN 2616-9436(online)ISBN 978-92-9259-961-4(print)ISBN 978-92-9259-960-7(online)BIS Annual Economic Report 2026 iii Contents From resilience to robustness?.1 The year in review.1 Old and new fiscal-financial stability nexus.2 Policy implications.3 Stablecoins and beyond.4 I.Progress and peri

4、l.7 Resilience tested.7 A resilient start.7 Box A:Global supply chains:adaptability and vulnerability.9 The conflict and its peril.12 Box B:The persistent economic effects of the Iran conflict.14 Navigating progress and peril.17 An inflation comeback.17 AI progress and investment boom under pressure

5、.19 Box C:Transformative AI,long-term growth and r-star.20 Financial vulnerabilities as amplifiers.23 Fiscal positions under increasing strain.27 Policy implications.28 Endnotes.33 Additional notes to graphs.33 References.37 II.High public debt and shifting financial markets:challenges for central b

6、anks.41 Introduction.41 Near record-high public debt and evolving fiscal space.42 Box A:Insufficient debt consolidation in good times.44 Box B:Why financial intermediation matters for fiscal space.48 A new form of fiscal-financial stability nexus.49 The increasing role of NBFIs in government bond ma