麦肯锡：2026年第一季度东南亚经济回顾报告：多重逆风下分化发展之路（英文版）（25页）.pdf

1、Southeast Asia quarterly economic review:Divergent paths amid headwinds After a strong close to 2025,Southeast Asia started the new year on diverging paths as external tech-driven demand and domestic spending collided with geopolitical headwinds and resurgent inflation.June 2026by Albert Changwith K

2、amaruzaman KamarudinSoutheast Asian economies began 2026 on diverging growth trajectories as technology-led output and exports,domestic demand,and public spending helped offset cooling momentum in several markets.Indonesia,Singapore,and Vietnam led regional growth,while Malaysia and Thailand continu

3、ed to expand at a steadier pace.The Philippines was the main laggard as domestic challenges weighed on economic activity(Exhibit 1).1Core growth engines remained supportive,although momentum softened from the late-2025 peaks.Exports continued to benefit from the global technology upcycle,particularl

4、y in electrical and electronics(E&E)products,while industrial activity was supported by technology-led manufacturing.Private consumption remained an important anchor,helped by festive spending in Indonesia and Vietnam,but it softened in several markets as inflation eroded real incomes.Capital flows

5、remained broadly resilient,anchored by technology and manufacturing commitments,despite a more cautious global investment climate.However,escalating Middle East tensions have introduced significant headwinds and exacerbated macroeconomic pressures.Inflation rose across most of the region as higher e

6、nergy prices,supply chain disruptions,and currency weakness fed through to domestic prices,prompting divergent central bank responses.Regional currencies came under pressure from higher oil prices and a stronger US dollar,with the Indonesian rupiah,Philippine peso,and Thai baht among the weaker perf