食品饮料行业：滞涨期的大众品表现以美国、日本为例-260630（39页）.pdf

1、 2 ZXRVvMmPmNpOwOtPnMwPpO9P8QbRmOnNsQtNkPnNtNlOoNqQaQoOxOvPrNvNNZnPnO3/3/CONTENTS0102030405 4/4 5-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%051015202530354045501970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985原油均价(美元/桶)同比第一次石油危机前第一次石油危机前油价维持低位油价维持低位OPEC禁运前后油价开始跳禁运前后油价开始跳升升，油价维持高位，油价维持高位第二次石油危机，高第二次

2、石油危机，高油价油价+紧缩紧缩需求回落，通胀缓和，需求回落，通胀缓和，油价逐步下行油价逐步下行 6PPIYoYPPIYoYPPIYoYPPIYoY197120.963.1%59.91-0.9%10.659.0%10.515.6%197221.623.1%60.771.4%11.225.3%11.6010.4%197323.599.1%70.2715.6%12.047.3%12.598.5%197427.2015.3%89.7427.7%14.7022.1%18.5547.3%197530.1310.8%91.632.1%18.0722.9%22.7122.4%197631.454.4%96.4

3、35.2%21.0516.5%24.759.0%197733.506.5%99.122.8%25.0418.9%26.025.2%197836.137.9%98.34-0.8%27.299.0%27.244.7%197940.1411.1%103.425.2%30.5111.8%32.6519.9%198045.5413.5%118.7714.8%35.3715.9%46.7143.1%198149.769.3%120.041.1%39.1610.7%55.3718.5%198251.744.0%120.630.5%42.498.5%58.295.3%705101520253035197019

4、7119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985美国CPI（%）日本CPI（%）韩国CPI（%）英国CPI（%）第一次石油危机第一次石油危机第二次石油危机第二次石油危机 819741979-19801974CPI1974-1975198019821974GDP 9GDP(%)CPI(%)(%)(%)S&P500(%)19725.33.35.64.419.019735.66.24.98.7-14.71974-0.511.05.610.5-26.51975-0.29.18.55.837.219793.211.35.811.218.

5、41980-0.313.57.113.432.419812.510.37.616.4-4.91982-1.86.19.712.221.619834.63.29.69.122.6 1011.1%13.5%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%1970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985美国CPI同比(%)美国实际GDP增长率(%)第一次石油危机第一次石油危机第二次石油危机第二次石油危机 110%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000美国居民消

6、费支出（十亿美元）居民消费支出增速（%）60657075808590951001970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985 1223.2%7.8%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%1970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985日本 CPI 同比(%)日本实际GDP增长率(%)第一次石油危机第一次石油危机第二次石油危机第二次石油危机 13-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%02004006008001,0001,2001,