安联：2026公开市场与私募股权对比研究报告：二十年最大的股权回报差距（英文版）（17页）.pdf

1、 1 In Summary Public equities have repriced the future while private equity is still monetizing the past.Since the October 2022 trough,the S&P 500 has compounded at more than 20%a year for three straight years,while Private Equity buyout portfolios assembled at the 2020-2021 peak,and now carrying mo

2、re expensive debt into a thin exit market,have lagged on every benchmark and horizon.At this point in time,t he gap between liquid and illiquid equity returns seems to be the widest in two decades.The rally that opened the gap is narrow and earnings-led,not a liquidity melt up.The Magnificent Seven

3、alone delivered more than half the S&P 500s three-year total return,strip them out and the index is an ordinary performer,and the equal weighted version has compounded at about half the pace,a gap unseen since the late 1990s.But the move rests on delivered earnings and a real AI capex super cycle ra

4、ther than multiple expansion,so the premium looks more durable than the dot-com peak.Yet private equitys long-run premium is real,this cycle has just interrupted it.On a like for like basis,matched to public indices for geography,size,sector and leverage and net of fees and carry,buyout has beaten p

5、ublic markets over three decades,with MSCI estimating pooled direct alpha of roughly 400bps a year since 1994.The exception is the 2021-2023 vintages,which currently show a negative direct alpha of about 800bps against the MSCI ACWI,the first consecutive run to trail public markets in the series.Con

6、sequently,the data points to rough PE performance ahead even allowing for the fact that these vintages are still young and J-curve distorted.Private equity can no longer count on rising valuations and must now drive returns by growing the underlying business.For over a decade,buyout returns came mos