普华永道：2026经济展望报告：美国与全球经济洞察、行业传导效应及投资格局（英文版）（20页）.pdf

1、Insights on the US and global economy sector implications,and investing landscape May 2026Quarterly outlook 1PwC|Quarterly outlookIntroductionEvery six months,the IMF Meetings in Washington bring policymakers,financial executives,and investors together to take stock of the global economy.This year,w

2、e joined those conversations as markets weighed the economic fallout from the Iran military conflict,the risk of more persistent inflation,and renewed concerns about global debt and fiscal sustainability.The core theme that emerged,however,was that the global economy is in a rare moment:two powerful

3、 forces are pushing growth and inflation in opposite directions.Even before the latest military escalation in the Middle East,AI transformation was already reshaping business models and had become a central pillar of growth expectations,with hyperscalers,chipmakers,and cloud infrastructure driving a

4、 new cycle of investment.2Figure 1:Top commodities traded via Strait of Hormuz(Kilotons)Note:Trade volumes are based on data for Saudi Arabia,UAE,Bahrain,Qatar,Kuwait,Oman,Iran,and Iraq Source:KplerImports(Kilotons)Exports(Kilotons)CommodityCrude777LNG6,760Naphtha3,912Limestone2,972Fuel oil2,361Prop

5、ane1,9715Diesel1,772Butane1,7224Sulphur1,2784Iron orepellets1,291Jet1,276SRFO1,135283Stone733778Gasoline591576Steel1541,031Aluminium881,098Corn1,3429331,17234347213816410762,313PwC|Quarterly outlook1 https:/www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz.Accessed 22 April 2026

6、.2 https:/ https:/ MEESThat dynamic has now been clouded by geopolitical upheaval.The Iran military conflict has disrupted oil and liquified natural gas(LNG)flows through the Strait of Hormuz,through which nearly 20%of global daily oil demand and LNG passes.1 Fatih Birol,Executive Director of the In