eFinancialModels：2026-2031年美国光伏市场研究报告：供需前景（英文版）（46页）.pdf

1、eFinancialModelsSOLAR USAUSA Solar Market Study 20262031DemandSupply Outlook 20262031May 2026Version 6.0eFinancialModels Researchwww.eFinancialM Powered by Industry Know-HowContents(Right-click Update Field after opening in Word)Executive Summary-31 Methodology and Scope-52 The USA Solar Industry To

2、day-73 Supply-Side Analysis-104 Demand-Side Analysis-145 Pricing and Cost Dynamics-176 Three Scenarios Bear/Base/Bull 20262031-217 Technology and Innovation Trends-248 Regulatory and Policy Context-269 Competitive Landscape-3010 Best Practices and Innovation Benchmark-3211 Risks and Weaknesses-3312

3、Recommendations and Opportunities-3413 Sources-3614 Glossary-39Appendix A Pricing Model Assumptions(Base Case)-40Appendix B Quick-Reference Action Checklist-41Appendix C Disclaimer-42Executive SummaryThe United States solar PV sector enters 2026 as the worlds second-largest national market by cumula

4、tive installed capacity approximately 279 GW-DC across all four segments at end-2025(SEIA/Wood Mackenzie),equivalent to roughly 220 GW-AC on the federal utility-scale-only convention used by the EIA.Over the five-year forward horizon to end-2031,the eFinancialModels Base case projects the installed

5、base to roughly double to approximately 600 GW-DC,a 9%compound annual growth rate driven primarily by utility-scale additions servicing data-center load growth,hyperscaler corporate PPAs,and the residual safe-harbor pipeline executing under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act(OBBBA,H.R.1,July 2025)tax-cr

6、edit framework.The single most consequential change in this cycle versus prior outlooks is the post-OBBBA tax-credit regime.Under OBBBA+IRS Notice 2025-42+IRS Notice 2026-15,Section 48E ITC and Section 45Y PTC eligibility terminates for projects placed in service after 31 December 2027 unless constr