壳牌（Shell）：2026年能源安全情景报告：能源转型挑战（英文版）（100页）.pdf

1、Generated by AIShell S 2026 Energy Security ScenariosChallenges to the transition2The 2026 Energy Security ScenariosChallenges to the transitionA changing world 3Energy choices and security 3Artificial intelligence,technology and the evolution of the energy system 4Technology timelines 5Key scenario

2、s observations 6Geopolitics,technology,society 6Energy demand 6The energy mix 6Carbon management 7National response archetypes 8Three security scenarios 10Economic growth in a fragmenting world 12Artificial intelligence and economic growth 14Three distinct storylines in a period of apparent polycris

3、is 15Archipelagos 16Changes ahead in China 17Surge 21Horizon 25Changes to the energy system 28Critical minerals and the energy transition 30Energy demand 33Drivers of energy demand 33Future oil demand 37The future for natural gas 40LNG in the three scenarios 42The continuation of coal 43The much-ant

4、icipated leapfrog 45A tale of two countries China and India 46Low-carbon fuels 48The rise of renewables 53Integrating intermittent renewables into the grid 54Electrification of final energy 56A nuclear renaissance 61Is Archipelagos a slow transition?63Carbon management and emissions 64Carbon managem

5、ent in the three scenarios 65Land-use change 73Climate-change politics and temperature outcomes 75The EU emissions goals in the three scenarios 79Implications of a warmer world in Archipelagos 80Final thoughts 81Security choices timeline in the 2026 Energy Security Scenarios 82References and acknowl

6、edgements 83Accessibility descriptions 84Legal disclaimer 98ContentsThe 2026 Energy Security ScenariosChallenges to the transition3The 2026 Energy Security ScenariosChallenges to the transitionWhen Shell published The Energy Security Scenarios in March 2023,with its Archipelagos and Horizon storylin