世界气象组织（WMO）：2026-2035年全球年度至十年气候最新通报（英文版）（29页）.pdf

1、1 WMO 2026 Calendar Competition-Niurma Sanchez2 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026-2035 Key Messages The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO).It provides a synthesis of the global annual t

2、o decadal predictions produced by the WMO designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres.The latest predictions show that:Global mean temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the five-yearperiod 2026-2030.The annually averaged global mean near-surface tempe

3、rature for eachyear between 2026 and 2030 is predicted to be between 1.3C and 1.9C higher than theaverage over the years 1850-1900.It is very likely(91%chance)that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5Cabove the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.It i

4、s alsolikely(75%chance)that the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average.It is likely(86%chance)that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will set a new annualrecord(currently 2024).It is exceptionally unlikely(1%)that any year will exceed 2C ofwarming in the next fiv

5、e years.The five-year predicted average temperature in the Nio 3.4 region relative to the wholetropics indicates a preference for El Nio conditions,particularly in 2027 and 2028.Arctic temperatures over the next five extended winters(November-March)are predicted tobe 2.8C above average temperatures

6、for 1991-2020,an anomaly more than three and halftimes that of global mean temperature anomaly over the same period.Decadal predictions of near-surface temperature for 2026-2035 are similar to those seen inclimate projections.However,the predictions show warmer anomalies over the Amazon,North Africa