摩根资产管理：2024年长期资本市场假设报告（英文版）（150页）.pdf

1、 FOR INSTITUTIONAL/WHOLESALE/PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION28th annual edition2024 Long-Term Capital Market AssumptionsTime-tested projections to build stronger portfoliosJ.P.Morgan Asset Management 3ForewordShock waves from the defining events o

2、f the decade thus far the global pandemic,the invasion of Ukraine,profound shifts in monetary policy,and,more recently,the terrible attack on Israel continue to reverberate.Even so,we can begin to see the outlines of a changed investing environment.Its a moment of transition,challenging long-establi

3、shed norms and recalibrating risk-reward frameworks.At this interesting juncture,we are pleased to launch the 2024 edition of J.P.Morgan Asset Managements Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions(LTCMAs).In our 28th year of producing capital market estimates,we incorporate more than 200 asset and strate

4、gy classes;our return assumptions are available in 17 base currencies.Over the years,many investors and advisors have come to depend on our assumptions to inform their strategic asset allocation,build more resilient portfolios and establish reasonable expectations for risks and returns over a 10-to

5、15-year time frame.Additionally,with each passing year,we aim to readjust our long-run approximations,incorporating new information presented by markets,policymakers and economic data.In this edition of our LTCMAs,our economic and asset class forecasts generally hold steady.While the 60/40 stock-bon

6、d portfolio remains at the core,it requires extension,expansion and enhancement.The insights presented here aim to help clients identify the right adaptations for their risk and return objectives as they build smarter portfolios for a world in transition.We hope our analysis helps guide your long-te