KKR：2026年中全球宏观展望报告：分化困局（英文版）（89页）.pdf

1、Global Macro Trends June 202616.3InsightsThe Divergence ConundrumMid-Year Outlook for 2026 Contents 3 Introduction 7 Where Our Thinking Has Evolved 15 KKR GMAA vs.the Consensus 17 Key Asset Class Tilts 19 What Could Go Wrong?22 Variant Perception 23 Section I:Key Themes/Asset Allocation 23 The Secur

2、ity of Everything 24 Power/Energy Infrastructure 24 Collateral-Based Cash Flows 26 Consumption Upgrades in Emerging Markets 27 Intra-Asia Trade 27 Productivity/Worker Retraining 29 Transitioning Companies from Capital-Heavy to Capital-Light 30 Picks and Pans 36 Section II:Most Frequently Asked Quest

3、ions 36 What Are the Global Bond Markets Telling Us?40 Have Expected Returns Changed Enough to Alter Asset Allocation?46 Where Is Relative Value Most Attractive Today in Credit?49 Section III:Regional Economic Forecasts 49 U.S.57 Euro Area 62 China 66 Japan 71 Section IV:Capital Markets 71 Interest

4、Rates 75 The S&P 500 81 Oil 84 U.S.Dollar 86 Section V:ConclusionHenry H.McVeyHead of Global Macro&Asset Allocation,CIO of KKR Balance S David McNellis Aidan Corcoran Changchun Hua Kristopher Novell Lauren Goodwin Brian Leung Rebecca Ramsey Tony Buckley Richard Bullock Christian Olinger Bola Okunade

5、 Rachel Li Thibaud Monmirel Yifan Zhao Asim Ali Patrycja Koszykowska Koontze Jang Coco Qu Miguel Montoya Allen Liu Alexandre Caduc Wayne Shen Amy Dai Lucy Siegel Insights|Volume 16.3 3The Divergence ConundrumMid-Year Outlook for 2026Joseph Chamberlains warning in 1902 regarding Britains position ami

6、dst intensifying nationalistic competition feels especially relevant today,as the blurring of geopolitics and economics intensifies and the global economy is moving from a low-cost,efficiency-first model towards one where redundancy,reliability,and resilience matter more.Two new realities,more strat