睿咨得能源：2026年中期能源市场洞察报告：安全优先-中东危机的长期影响（英文版）（25页）.pdf

1、May 2026Energy Macro AnalyticsThird editionSecurity first:The legacy of the Middle East crisisHouse ViewInterim Report2Security first:The legacy of the Middle East crisisHouse View Interim Report|May 2026Executive summaryThe interim House View argues that the Middle East crisis and prolonged disrupt

2、ion in the Strait of Hormuz are accelerating the shift toward a more fragmented,security-driven energy system,though lasting structural change remains uncertain.The crisis has generated the largest oil supply disruption ever experienced by the global economy,exposing the centrality of Middle Eastern

3、 hydrocarbons and forcing governments to reassess efficiency,resilience and security.Energy security has returned to the top of the policy agenda.Hormuz has exposed the vulnerability of interconnected markets and reinforced the importance of reliable supply chains,storage,redundancy,and domestic res

4、ilience.Governments are prioritizing strategic petroleum reserves,liquefied natural gas(LNG)storage and fuel diversification.Energy security is no longer a temporary crisis concern,but a structural feature of a more unstable world.Geopolitical fragmentation is also accelerating.The global system is

5、not evolving into rigid blocs,but into selective alignments and strategic hedging.Countries seek flexibility across competing powers rather than committing fully to one side.This is visible across energy trade,supply chains and security arrangements.China illustrates the trend:large crude stockpiles

6、 and a broader security strategy give Beijing a stronger buffer than many importers,while the conflict sharpens competition with the US.The macroeconomic impact is visible,though still mostly cyclical rather than structural.If oil prices remain around$110 per barrel,global gross domestic product(GDP