安联：2026分裂格局下的新兴市场：从地缘视角到发展韧性-4R 分析框架（英文版）（13页）.pdf

1、1 In Summary The Iran war marked the first major oil shock that did not trigger a broad emerging markets sell-off.Markets repriced countries based on strengths and weaknesses rather than the traditional EMDM divide.This supports a resilience-Resource Position,Reserve Strength,Rate Credibility and Re

2、financing Structure which increasingly explains cross-country differentiation more effectively.Although institutional mandates,benchmarks and trading-desk structures will continue to rely on the EM DM distinction for the foreseeable future,portfolio construction frameworks that lean primarily on thi

3、s historical classification risk becoming progressively less relevant.Resource Position,not the EM DM label,defines the fault line of the Iran shock.Economies with large import dependencies such as Egypt,Romania,South Korea,Greece and the UK,have faced the strongest repricing pressures,while commodi

4、ty exporters have benefited from improved terms of trade.Even in a downside scenario with oil prices above USD180/bbl,the pain would be concentrated within the energy-importing cohort.Reserve Strength increasingly separates resilient sovereigns from vulnerable triple-deficit economies,irrespective o

5、f EM or DM classification.Since the 2013 taper tantrum,many EMs have rebuilt fiscal discipline,strengthened current-account positions and stabilized debt trajectories,entering the Iran shock with roughly 1pp of GDP more fiscal headroom than at the onset of Covid-19.EM economies now account for rough

6、ly 60%of global GDP in PPP terms,up from around 40%in 2000.FX reserve buffers have continued to strengthen across the Middle East,Central Asia and Emerging Europe,while several advanced economies remain mired in persistent fiscal deficits and deteriorating external balances.Rate Credibility has stru