SystemIQ：2026塑造粮食体系未来研究报告：处在十字路口-不确定性时代下的粮食产业（英文版）（56页）.pdf

1、At the Crossroads:Foodin an Age ofUncertaintyShaping the future of food systemsApril 20262 At the Crossroads:Food in an Age of UncertaintyForeword 3Executive summary 4Part 1:How we got here a clear look back 6Part 2:What the future might hold scenarios and signals 10Part 3:Reflections on the tension

2、s and trade-offs of the food system 19Part 4:Ideas and interventions building a shared agenda 23Part 5:Summary and next steps 33Annex I:Four plausible scenarios 35Annex II:Look back to look forward:a futures thinking framework 51References and acknowledgements 52Contents3 At the Crossroads:Food in a

3、n Age of UncertaintyOn behalf of Systemiq:Jeremy Oppenheim Managing Partner,SystemiqChristine Delivanis Partner,Head of Systemiq Nature-Food Platform SystemiqFood systems are entering a period of profound disruption and possibility.Artificial intelligence and other technological breakthroughs,climat

4、e volatility,demographic change,shifting consumer health and nutrition needs and geopolitical fracture are interacting in ways that are reshaping how food is produced,traded and consumed.At the same time,the system remains exposed to highly concentrated risks where critical inputs and foodstuffs dep

5、end on a small number of geographies and routes,as illustrated by the Strait of Hormuz,a chokepoint for up to 30%of globally traded fertilisers.1 Many of these forces originate beyond the food system,yet their effects on food security,resilience and environmental stability are already unfolding.The

6、coming decade will reveal how food systems respond to the risks and opportunities before them with the trajectory far from settled.Food systems are operating within mounting complexity,making leadership decisions harder and more consequential.Deliberate,holistic decisions and solutions are required,