Aranca：2026电池化学品领域真实机遇研究报告（英文版）（11页）.pdf

1、Confidential May 2026Special ReportWhere are the real opportunities in Battery Chemicals?Falling Prices and Overcapacity are forcing a shift Toward Chemistry-Led Value CreationSpecial Report:Where are the real opportunities in Battery Chemicals?2A decade of EV-driven demand created an unprecedented

2、investment surge across battery manufacturing.That phase is maturing and giving way to something more selective,more chemistry-driven and more defensible2015-2022Phase 1-The Manufacturing RaceEV adoption accelerates.Gigafactories multiply.Capacity expands globally.Demand outpaces supply.Every player

3、 invests in cell manufacturing.2023-2026Inflection Point-Commoditization Sets InOvercapacity emerges.Battery prices fall sharply.Chinese manufacturers dominate on cost.Manufacturing margins compress across the board.2026-2030Phase 2-Chemistry&Materials LeadValue creation shifts upstream.Specialty ch

4、emicals,advanced materials,and recycling emerge as the new profit pools.9Battery demand growth expected by 2030 vs.202089%Fall in battery cell prices over thelast decade4,700 GWhProjected global Li-ion demand by 2030E35020915613213911585828786836862552015201720192021202320242026EBattery Price(USD/kW

5、h)Capacity Utilization(%)Global Li-ion Battery Price vs.Capacity Utilization2015 26E.Price decline compressing margins as overcapacity buildsThe question is no longer Should we invest in batteries?-it is Which part of the battery value chain can we actually win?-32%since 2017Source:Publication.Repor

6、t/Press Release;Aranca Analysis;Aranca EstimatesMargin Compression is redirecting Investment to Specialty Chemicals&Materials Special Report:Where are the real opportunities in Battery Chemicals?3Not all value chain positions are equal.Margins tell a clear story:chemistry and materials deliver 23 th