第一太平戴维斯（Savills）：2026年第一季度全球房地产资本市场研究报告（英文版）（31页）.pdf

1、RESEARCHGLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETSQ 1 2 0 2 6G L O B A L C A P I T A L M A R K E T S Q 1 2 0 2 6OLIVER SALMONDirector,World ResearchRASHEED HASSANHead of Global Cross Border InvestmentCHARLOTTE RUSHTONAssociate,World ResearchCONTENTS02-04 GLOBAL SUMMARY05 MARKET VIEW06-14 ASIA PACIFIC15-21 EUROPE22-28 N

2、ORTH AMERICA29 METHODOLOGYThe global economy began 2026 in a relatively steady state-however,conflict in the Middle East introduced new headwinds.The prospect of economic stagflation is clearly negative for the real estate sector,and this increases the opportunity cost of deploying capital.Global in

3、vestment of US$230bn in Q1 represented a 5%decline on a sequential basis,signalling a loss of momentum relative to the second half of last year.Assuming the consensus is right on a swift de-escalation,the impact on investment activity should be equally short-lived.Pending deals data for Q2 2026 sugg

4、est there remains a robust pipeline of transactions,implying activity is being delayed rather than destroyed.This echoes the pattern seen following the Liberation Day US tariff shock of April 2025,where first half weakness was replaced by second half strength.FOREWORD1G L O B A L C A P I T A L M A R

5、 K E T S Q 1 2 0 2 6The global economy began 2026 in a relatively steady state.Expectations were broadly in line with the previous year,with headwinds from tariffs,softening labour markets and weak underlying confidence offset by continued disinflation,easing financial conditions,supportive fiscal p

6、olicy and the ongoing technology capital expenditure boom.Energy markets were accommodative,underpinned by a global supply overhang which was being reinforced by OPEC+prioritising market share over price stability.However,conflict in the Middle East introduced new headwinds to the global economy.The